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Parry Sound Cottage Market | 2026 Review & 2027 Outlook
Same as always: this IS NOT AI slop. I write this stuff.
I’ve looked at Muskoka and at the province as a whole. The Parry Sound region is where I live, and this year it’s telling a different story from both of them. Buyers came back. So did sellers, in even greater numbers.
The Parry Sound Cottage Market in a Nutshell
2026 so far
- Sales are up, but still well below normal. 273 cottages sold from January to September, up 18.7% on 2025. That’s still 18.1% below the 8-year average and 20.5% below 2018 and 2019, before the pandemic.
- Supply is up even more. New listings, at 847, are the most of any January to September since 2018. Active listings averaged 249, 47% above the 8-year average, Months of inventory is 8.2 against a long-term 5.0, though that’s down from 8.7 last year.
- Prices held up. The median averaged $820K, up 8.1% on 2025 but 15% below the 2022 peak. Sellers are getting 95.2% of asking, and cottages are selling faster than last year: a median of 34 days, down from 39.
2027 outlook
- Listings stay high. Listing volume holds well above historical levels through 2027.
- Prices soften about 5%. This year’s gain came on a small number of sales, and with this much supply I expect some of it to come back off.
- The Cottage Forecaster. At the Q3 2026 update it reads Stable for Parry Sound cottages, at the low end of that range. See the Forecaster.
Parry Sound vs the rest
- The only region with real sales growth. Parry Sound sales are up 18.7% on 2025. Ontario’s are down 0.5% and Muskoka’s down 3.7%. Read the Muskoka outlook.
Our track record
- Last year’s calls: listings (+10.9% against about +10%), inventory staying high into the third quarter, and weak consumer confidence all landed. Prices missed, rising 8.1% instead of falling 5% to 10%, and sales came in stronger than the “largely unchanged” we expected, up 18.7%. See the scorecard.
What 2026 looked like
Parry Sound had a better year than most of cottage country. 273 waterfront cottages sold from January to September, up 18.7% on last year’s 230. July, with 59 sales, was the busiest month since 2022.
Pull back and the picture changes. Through an eight year lens, which includes the covid-era madness, we’re still running 18.1% below normal, and 20.5% below 2018 and 2019.
So this is a rebound from a very low base, not a return to normal. Still, it’s a different direction from Muskoka, where sales slipped again, and from the province, where they were flat.
About $284 million in cottages changed hands from January to September, up 23% on 2025.
Parry Sound Cottage Sales, 12-Month Rolling Total
Detached waterfront cottage sales in the 12 months ending each month, December 2018 to September 2026
| Period | Sales |
|---|---|
| 12 months to Dec 2018 | 424 |
| 12 months to Dec 2019 | 421 |
| 12 months to Dec 2020 | 656 |
| 12 months to Dec 2021 | 562 |
| 12 months to Dec 2022 | 323 |
| 12 months to Dec 2023 | 257 |
| 12 months to Dec 2024 | 299 |
| 12 months to Dec 2025 | 276 |
| 12 months to Sep 2026 | 319 |
Each point totals the 12 months ending then. The average line is the mean of the calendar years 2018 to 2025. Source: MLS® data from multiple boards (Habistat), detached waterfront cottages, Parry Sound, monthly. Rolling figures start in December 2018, the first full 12 months of comparable board coverage.
The catch is on the supply side. 847 cottages came to market from January to September, the most of any year since 2018 and up 10.9% on last year. Active listings averaged 249, up 12% and 47% above the 8-year average.
In July we hit 357 cottages for sale, just shy of the 359 in July 2019, the most in any month since 2018.
Months of inventory is 8.2 this year, against a long-term average of about 5. That’s actually a little better than last year’s 8.7, because sales grew faster than listings, but it’s still more than 60% above normal.
The absorption rate puts it plainly. About 11% of the cottages on the market sold each month, roughly 1 in 9. In 2018 and 2019 it was about 16%, or 1 in 6. More buyers came out this year, but sellers outpaced them.
Parry Sound Months of Inventory, 12-Month Rolling Average
Months of inventory: average active listings divided by average monthly sales, over the 12 months ending each month, December 2018 to September 2026
| Period | Months of inventory |
|---|---|
| 12 months to Dec 2018 | 5.5 |
| 12 months to Dec 2019 | 6.5 |
| 12 months to Dec 2020 | 2.8 |
| 12 months to Dec 2021 | 1.8 |
| 12 months to Dec 2022 | 3.1 |
| 12 months to Dec 2023 | 5.5 |
| 12 months to Dec 2024 | 7.3 |
| 12 months to Dec 2025 | 8.9 |
| 12 months to Sep 2026 | 8.4 |
Each point divides the average number of active listings by the average monthly sales over the 12 months ending then. Parry Sound’s small sales counts make single-month readings swing widely (January 2024 had one sale), so this is steadier than averaging monthly figures. Source: MLS® data from multiple boards (Habistat), detached waterfront cottages, Parry Sound, monthly. Rolling figures start in December 2018, the first full 12 months of comparable board coverage.
What I see for 2027
The headwinds I described for Muskoka apply here too. The uncertainty tied to the United States is still the biggest weight on the market, and I don’t expect a meaningful change in direction while the current administration is in power. Interest rates are now going the wrong way too: the Bank of Canada raised its rate on October 28.
Parry Sound has one thing going for it: price. At a median around $800K, it sits well below Muskoka, and that’s where this year’s buyers went. Terminations were essentially flat on 2025 (157 against 155), so fewer unsold cottages are coming back than in Muskoka, where they rose 23%.
I expect prices to soften about 5% in 2027, and listing volume to stay well above historical levels.
Upside: If energy prices ease and the Bank of Canada can reverse course, this year’s buyer momentum could carry into 2027 and start working down the inventory.
Downside: If listings keep climbing at this year’s pace, the Bank keeps raising rates and the rebound in sales stalls, months of inventory moves back toward 2024’s levels and prices give back this year’s gains.
Parry Sound New Listings Against Sales, 12-Month Rolling Totals
New listings and sales of detached waterfront cottages in the 12 months ending each month, December 2018 to September 2026
| Period | New listings | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| 12 months to Dec 2018 | 824 | 424 |
| 12 months to Dec 2019 | 902 | 421 |
| 12 months to Dec 2020 | 793 | 656 |
| 12 months to Dec 2021 | 753 | 562 |
| 12 months to Dec 2022 | 681 | 323 |
| 12 months to Dec 2023 | 650 | 257 |
| 12 months to Dec 2024 | 851 | 299 |
| 12 months to Dec 2025 | 838 | 276 |
| 12 months to Sep 2026 | 921 | 319 |
Each point totals the 12 months ending then. Source: MLS® data from multiple boards (Habistat), detached waterfront cottages, Parry Sound, monthly. Rolling figures start in December 2018, the first full 12 months of comparable board coverage.
Prices held up better than the supply numbers would suggest. The median averaged $820K from January to September, up 8.1% on 2025. Over the last 12 months it’s $799K, up 7.7%. That’s still 15% below the 2022 peak.
A word of caution: Parry Sound is a small market, with only 6 to 59 sales a month, so a few large sales can move the median. Over the last three months it slipped from $852,500 in August to $790,000 in September.
Sellers are getting 95.2% of their asking price, about the same as last year, and cottages are selling faster: a median of 34 days, down from 39.
Our Cottage Forecaster reads sold-listing data back to 2010 alongside economic signals and our own read from the docks. At the Q3 2026 update it reads Stable for Parry Sound cottages, at the low end of that range, which fits a modest softening rather than a sharp drop. It’s refreshed every quarter.
See the Cottage Forecaster →Parry Sound Median Sale Price, 12-Month Rolling Average
Average of the monthly median sale prices over the 12 months ending each month, December 2018 to September 2026
| Period | Median sale price |
|---|---|
| 12 months to Dec 2018 | $468K |
| 12 months to Dec 2019 | $489K |
| 12 months to Dec 2020 | $577K |
| 12 months to Dec 2021 | $830K |
| 12 months to Dec 2022 | $906K |
| 12 months to Dec 2023 | $828K |
| 12 months to Dec 2024 | $805K |
| 12 months to Dec 2025 | $754K |
| 12 months to Sep 2026 | $799K |
The source reports monthly medians only, so each point averages the 12 monthly medians ending then. The 2018 to 2025 average includes the much lower pre-pandemic years. Source: MLS® data from multiple boards (Habistat), detached waterfront cottages, Parry Sound, monthly. Rolling figures start in December 2018, the first full 12 months of comparable board coverage.
The Market Headwinds Going Into 2027
Here is what I’m watching.
The U.S. trade dispute. Still the biggest weight on the market. Canadian consumer confidence was 47.3 in September, below its 2010 to 2026 average of 51.4, and foreign buyers still face the 25% NRST that has applied across Ontario since October 2022.
Buyer interest. Canadian Google searches for “parry sound cottages for sale” over the past five years are 70% below the five years before, according to Google Trends. That earlier period includes the pandemic rush, but interest has not come back.
Supply. New listings are the highest since 2018 and active listings are 47% above normal. Even with sales up, it will take time for buyers to work through this much inventory.
Rates, prices and jobs. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.5% on October 28, its first increase since 2023, and warned that more hikes could follow. Its next decision is December 9. The hike pushes variable mortgage rates up right away. The 5-year bond yield, which sets fixed mortgage pricing, was 3.60% on October 2, close to its 52-week high of 3.71%. Inflation was 3.1% in September (2.2% excluding gasoline), driven by a 27.8% jump in gas prices, and Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, with unemployment up to 6.5%.
Sources: Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada (CPI and Labour Force Survey), Ipsos consumer confidence, Google Trends (Canada) and Habistat. Rates and yields as of the dates shown.
Parry Sound Pricing Power: Sale-to-List and Days on Market
Sale price as a share of list price, and median days on market, sales-weighted over the 12 months ending each month, December 2018 to September 2026
| Period | Sale price as share of list | Median days on market |
|---|---|---|
| 12 months to Dec 2018 | 95.8% | 42 |
| 12 months to Dec 2019 | 95.5% | 43 |
| 12 months to Dec 2020 | 98.5% | 30 |
| 12 months to Dec 2021 | 105.7% | 17 |
| 12 months to Dec 2022 | 100.8% | 20 |
| 12 months to Dec 2023 | 95.5% | 29 |
| 12 months to Dec 2024 | 95.3% | 42 |
| 12 months to Dec 2025 | 94.9% | 42 |
| 12 months to Sep 2026 | 95.0% | 38 |
Both series are sales-weighted averages of the monthly figures over the 12 months ending then. The sale-to-list axis starts at 90%. Source: MLS® data from multiple boards (Habistat), detached waterfront cottages, Parry Sound, monthly. Rolling figures start in December 2018, the first full 12 months of comparable board coverage.
Parry Sound Active Listings, 12-Month Rolling Average
Cottages on the market, averaged across the monthly counts for the 12 months ending each month, December 2018 to September 2026
| Period | Active listings |
|---|---|
| 12 months to Dec 2018 | 195 |
| 12 months to Dec 2019 | 230 |
| 12 months to Dec 2020 | 153 |
| 12 months to Dec 2021 | 83 |
| 12 months to Dec 2022 | 85 |
| 12 months to Dec 2023 | 117 |
| 12 months to Dec 2024 | 182 |
| 12 months to Dec 2025 | 204 |
| 12 months to Sep 2026 | 224 |
Each point averages the monthly counts for the 12 months ending then. Source: MLS® data from multiple boards (Habistat), detached waterfront cottages, Parry Sound, monthly. Rolling figures start in December 2018, the first full 12 months of comparable board coverage.
How last year’s outlook held up
In last January’s outlook we put our expectations for 2026 on the record. Three of the five calls we can measure landed. The other two went the same way: prices rose instead of falling, and buyers came back faster than we expected.
| Metric | Forecast, January 2026 | Actual, January to September | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| New listings | Up about 10% on 2025 | +10.9% (847 against 764), the most of any January to September since 2018. | LandedWithin 0.9 of a point |
| Inventory | Stays high well into the third quarter | Active listings averaged 249, up 12.1% and 47% above the 8-year average. July’s 357 came within two of the July 2019 record. | Landed |
| Consumer confidence | Remains a significant drag | 47.3 in September, below the 2010 to 2026 average of 51.4. | Landed |
| Prices | Soften another 5% to 10% | +8.1% (median averaging $820K against $759K). Over the last 12 months, +7.7%. Still 15% below the 2022 peak. | Missed by 13.1 pointsRose instead of falling |
| Demand and sales | Demand stays subdued; conditions largely unchanged from 2025 | +18.7% (273 against 230). Still 18.1% below the 8-year average, so demand remains below normal. | PartlyStronger than forecast |
Two of last year’s calls, on short-term rental rules and the NRST, have no single figure to check against. Last year’s post measured all waterfront property types (373 sales and 1,179 new listings in 2025). The figures here are detached waterfront cottages, so compare the changes, not the levels.
Using our data? Go for it.
A lot of agents, brokerages and journalists use our numbers and outlooks, and we’re glad they do. That’s why we publish them. All we ask is a credit and a link back to the source, so your clients can see where the figures came from.
Source: Finding Your Parry Sound, findingyourparrysound.ca
Need a chart, a number or a different cut of the data? Get in touch and we’ll help if we can.
About the data. The figures in this post come from The Habistat, an analytics tool powered by PropTx that combines MLS® data from nine Ontario real estate boards, and cover detached waterfront cottages, including water-access cottages, in the Parry Sound region. Board coverage of Parry Sound was limited before 2018, so the long-term average is 2018 to 2025 (8 years) and the charts start there. Charts use 12-month rolling figures to smooth out the strong seasonality in cottage sales; the text compares January to September of each year. Because monthly sales are small, months of inventory is calculated as average active listings divided by average monthly sales over each period.
Figures use the latest data and can differ slightly from our Q3 report, because late-entered closings are added after publication. Only MLS®-listed sales are counted, so private and exclusive sales are not captured. Termination counts are compared year over year only. MLS®, REALTOR® and the associated logos are trademarks of The Canadian Real Estate Association. More at our Parry Sound quarterly data and the Cottage Forecaster.
How these figures are built: see our full methodology.
Questions or comments? Contact John Fincham, Broker @ RE/MAX Parry Sound Muskoka Realty Ltd. Brokerage




