The Ontario Cottage Market Forecaster™

What began years ago as a simple handwritten notebook of market observations has evolved into the tool we are proud to share with you today.

In the beginning, we simply tracked how local prices reacted to economic shifts. Over time, that personal project grew through years of listening—to mortgage brokers, front-line agents, and appraisers—refining our understanding of what actually moves the market here in the district.

We learned one fundamental truth: You cannot use general real estate statistics to predict the Parry Sound market. Waterfront properties—whether on the Big Sound or the inland lakes—are a unique asset class that behaves differently than the general residential market.

That is why we built this tool to be specific. We don't track generic housing trends; we track the unique drivers of Parry Sound and the Archipelago. And because a $900k family cottage runs on a different economic engine than a $6M Georgian Bay estate, our algorithm is dynamic. As you adjust the price slider, the tool automatically re-weighs the inputs, prioritizing the factors that matter most to your search.

For example, interest rates profoundly affect lower price points but barely move the needle on luxury island properties. Conversely, the Stock Market and Volatility (VIX) drive decisions for buyers over $3M, but are less relevant for a starter cottage.

Combined with our "Boots on the Ground" Sentiment Score—which reality-checks the data against real-time industry feedback from the Bay and local lakes—this model offers a forecast built on experience. It isn't a crystal ball, but it is the next best thing: a data-driven look at where our local waterfront prices may be heading next.