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Parry Sound Real Estate | 2025 Outlook for Cottages & Homes
Parry Sound Real Estate Snapshot
Cottage Trends
The waterfront real estate market in the Parry Sound area has continued to be muted this year with unit sales running well below historical averages. Similar to trends seen in Muskoka, the Parry Sound market tells a tale of two segments.
Since the market's peak in 2021, the number of cottages sold in the Parry Sound region has dropped dramatically. For properties priced over $2,000,000, sales have declined by approximately 40%, while cottages in lower price brackets have seen a sharper decline of about 60%.
New waterfront listings are at their highest levels since spring 2021, signaling increased activity from sellers. The total number of cottages for sale has doubled compared to 2022, with a 12-month rolling average now exceeding 200 active listings.
Inventory on the Rise
This increased inventory comes with notable price adjustments, as sellers navigate the realities of today’s buyer-driven market. Many properties have seen price reductions, reflecting the widening gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness.
Market Dynamics: Pricing Trends
One of the most telling statistics in the current market is the average percentage of the original listing price achieved in sales. In 2022, properties sold for an average of 105% of their listing price, often amid competitive bidding wars. Today, that figure has dropped to under 94%, signaling a return to more historically spreads.
A Firm Buyer’s Market
For sellers, pricing appropriately is more important than ever. Overpricing a property in this market risks prolonged time on the market or losing out to competitively priced listings. Buyers, on the other hand, are benefiting from increased inventory and more negotiating power.
Average Percent of the Original Listing Price | Waterfront
Overall patterns we find in the Parry Sound cottage market are reflected throughout Ontario. The chart to the right, graphing Google search volumes over the last 5 years, clearly shows there are far less people looking for waterfront properties in the province. As we have alluded to in previous articles this is due to many factors including interest rates, pricing, new foreign buyers tax and the overall cost of living.
It's not that people have lost interest in cottage ownership but the accumulation of these factors have made it out of reach for the majority. It may take several quarters before some of these impediments flush themselves out.
Cottage Sales in all Price Ranges | 12 Month Rolling Average
New Cottage Listings for Parry Sound Region | 12 Month Rolling Average
The Outlook for Cottages & Vacant Waterfront Lots
As we move into 2025, waterfront listings in the Parry Sound area are expected to remain strong, with many unsold cottages returning to the market. Additionally, mortgage renewals for cottages purchased during the COVID-19 buying surge could drive more owners to list their properties.
We anticipate further modest price reductions, particularly for cottages on smaller or less sought-after lakes and strong inventory numbers in the second quarter.
Waterfront Search Trends Historically Weak
Source : Google Trends
Residential Trends
Home sales across the Parry Sound region remain slow, with an average of just 32 properties selling per month. Interestingly, this sluggish performance isn’t due to a lack of inventory—available listings are at their highest levels since 2018. As you can see by the chart below, there has been a steady increase in homes for sale for 9 quarters.
Buyer vs Seller Expectations
So, what’s causing the stall in sales? Despite strong demand for residential properties, as indicated by Google search analytics, the market seems to be caught in a standoff between buyers and sellers.
Much like the cottage market, many sellers are holding out for peak prices, while buyers are cautious amid evolving market conditions. However, as inventory continues to rise, sellers may feel increased pressure to adjust their expectations and align with current market trends.
Homes for Sale in Parry Sound Region - Non Waterfront
Parry Sound Home Sales in all Price Ranges - Non Waterfront
The Outlook for Residential Real Estate in 2025
As we head into the spring, we anticipate a seasonal rise in inventory levels. However, supply will likely remain well below the 10-year average across all price ranges. Many of the homes hitting the market this spring may be carryovers from the fall, now priced more competitively to align with current market trends.
The Parry Sound real estate market closely mirrors the activity in southern Ontario, as a significant number of buyers are relocating from the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding regions. Consequently, local sales volumes will largely depend on market conditions in the GTA.
Look to a firm buyers market starting in the second quarter with prices softening slightly as the summer progresses.
U.S. Tarriff Implications
The outlier affecting the real estate market, not just in Ontario but across Canada, is the potential impact of proposed U.S. tariffs on our economy. This is a complex scenario with many moving parts, making it difficult to predict exact outcomes. However, one thing is clear: the implications could be significant.
According to the latest Bank of Canada report, Evaluating the Potential Impacts of U.S. Tariffs, several possible scenarios are outlined, all pointing toward higher costs for many goods imported from the U.S. While I’m not an economist, it seems evident that such price increases could lead to higher inflation, which may, in turn, prompt rising interest rates and erode consumer confidence.
The cottage market could see particular vulnerability as it could create the perfect storm of low buyer confidence on top of the existing supply / demand challenges with looming inflationary pressure. In my view, the Parry Sound real estate market is already experiencing weak sentiment, and these additional pressures have the potential to exacerbate the stagnation we’re currently seeing.
Our real estate forecasts are to give you a snapshot of current trends and market insights, but it’s not meant as financial advice. The market can change quickly due to various factors, so we always suggest speaking with a real estate professional or financial advisor before making any big decisions. We’re happy to provide this information as a resource, but please remember it’s just one piece of the puzzle!
If you would like an idea of the market trends on a specific lake or area just contact us. We can break down statistics for any area in the Muskoka, Parry Sound and Haliburton regions to help with an informed decision.
Questions or Comments about Parry Sound Real Estate? We would love to hear from you! Call or text John Fincham directly @ 705 783 7718 or contact us here.
